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I came to a similar conclusion. The farther ahead of us we look, the cloudier it becomes. There will always be a point when visibility drops to zero, and since we are a moving target, so is that point. As new discoveries are made, what was once unknowable can now be theorized. Kevin uses that to justify Ray’s predictions not being valid. Perhaps. If what lies beyond the singularity is invisible, by definition, I suppose it seems a bit foolish to be making any kind of claims.
I fail to see why this specifically doesn’t permit Kurzweil’s predictions from being possible, however. An unknowable future doesn’t mean great things aren’t coming, it simply means they are beyond theory right now. That still sounds pretty cool to me. Keep in mind that impossible things have already happened. As Louis C.K. hilariously puts it, we partake in the miracle of flight without appreciating it every day. I have a device in my pocket that can literally call China in 2 seconds. It can also show my position on the globe within several feet. We landed on the fucking moon.
Try convincing a peasant from the middle ages, who passes the time by publicly whipping himself to apologize to God for causing the bubonic plague, that these things aren’t impossible. The singularity to him would have stopped long before the FM Radio.
So while it seems that this technologically deterministic singularity will always be just a tad out of reach, it’s honestly just a useful metaphor anyway. It represents the idea that unpredictable things over time will become predictable. We can only see a few miles ahead of us, but once we get there, we’ll be able to see a few more.
Think I’m retarded? I’m all ears.